The Importance of Legitimacy

Hilzoy posting over at Washington Monthly makes an important point that while it may be debatable whether a legitimately selected Hilary Clinton is more electable than a legitimately selected Obama, an illegitimately selected Clinton is definitely less electable than Obama. She limits her critique to African Americans feeling "robbed". But I think the same could be said for a whole host of young voters who have only known 20 years of Clinton and Bush aristocracy and are desperate for change. Same for the independents that fueled the early Obama energy.



Matt Yglesias posted the results of the 1976 election in the context of a discussion about Reagan Democrats. But what was most striking to me was that it immediately looks like a possible map of 2008, with the Northeast replacing Oklahoma and Arizona. And guess what, in the Carter map those swing states Clinton says are "must win" (Penn., Florida, Ohio, and West Virgina) are all red. There is also a decent chance that this year could turn into a Reagan-like blowout.