Darfur

While I have heard some good things may come out of the high level visit in Darfur this week, things are still getting worse there as the fighting between rebels and everyone else seems to have picked up in tempo.

The raid on the AU forces appears to have been a local commander allied with JEM. In the scheme of who controls things in Darfur JEM is fairly small, but it was their failed attempt to undercut Bashir in 2002 and subsequent defection from the political process that seems to have sparked the powder keg. They swear it was not signed off on by the leadership, but the way negotiations have been shaking out they look like a big loser (keep in mind this is a political analysis, the REAL losers are the million Darfuris whose lives have been destroyed).

Attacking the AU force looks like bad news for a couple of reasons. First, do not ever fuck with Nigerians; they will kill you and your family and your neighbor and not feel a hint of remorse. Seriously, this is bad because if suddenly they are more worried about getting attacked by rebels there may be a big behind the scenes shift in their pressure.

Second, the Senegalese withdrawl has set a precedent for others to pull out. Not only do the Senegalese have some of the best officers in Africa, but the AUs biggest problem has always been capacity and this will really hurt, which means fewer observers to try and guard against attacks on civilians.

My biggest complaint about the Save Darfur folks - who have lots of people who should know better - has always been that by ignoring the other side of the conflict they make it harder to achieve a final settlement by providing the rebels the illusion that a foreign white horse is going to ride in and give them the keys to the castle (which is what JEM has always been after).