Kerry's Mistake

The topic du jour for the next few hours is the gaffe by Kerry today.

Contra Andrew Sullivan I don't think that an apology would kill it off quickly. But more importantly, I think that in the long term his subsequent apology will be a kiss of death for his Presidential aspirations.

First, as to the short term, an apology doesn't do anything to neutralize press coverage because the story very quickly moved from being about what JK said and onto what other people where saying about his comment. What is or is not a story is determined by what the press chooses to dilate on. The whole idea of the bully pulpit of the Presidency isn't that it imbues you with any magical abilities but simply that whatever the President says is news in and of itself.

JK can apologize, deny, argue, or make any other string of coherent (or perhaps not) words till he is blue in the face and it doesn't actually matter. Look at the headline at WaPo "Bush: Kerry Insults Troops". CNN: "Bush joins attacks on Kerry". FOX (ironically the fairest headline): "Bush, Kerry spar over remarks on troops". BBC: "Kerry gives unexpected gift to Republicans" (which I see as more a reaction to the media than the actual political impact). The specific words he uttered are relevant only insofar as they were grounds for The Corner and Rove to flaggulate him and tap into the chattering class. An apology rather just means that Thursday's headline will be a far less flattering version of "Kerry apologizes for attacking troops" rather than forcing a larger discussion about which socio-economic class is being disproportionately affected by the conflict in Iraq.

In the longer run, though I think it is an even bigger mistake because it again paints him as waffling. GWB has NEVER apologized for anything. And he never will. And as a result he will never be called "weak" or "soft" or "indecisive".

Now I am perfectly willing to believe that Lurch is comically deficient. But such an obvious and blatent shot across the bow is the kind of thing you usually only hear out of Rove's winnign campaigns. And that is the point. Dems kill the Republicans on everything except security issues. If we put a 20 foot tall concrete barrier around the country Dems would will every election for the next century. Losing a few PC points to say what everyone knows and then show you've got the guts to go toe-to-toe with the Presidential noise machine and not back down (and even more, seguay it into a meaningful discussion about how Repubs are screwing over the lower/middle class families they claim to care about) is how you make everyone forget how you backed down in 2004 and propel you to the front of a crowded field.

So JK, if you are listening, don't back down (in fact stop saying it was a joke - the worst thing you can do is say you think that the fact that the only upward path for kids not going to college is to get shot at in the desert is in any way humorous). Stand up and you will be rewarded. Back down and I guess you will just be showing your true stripes and letting those like me know that we were wrong about you.