Friday, March 27, 2009

Friday Morning Fun

One of my beacons of innovation passed along a link for a new service called Moontoast. Basically it is a web conferencing site for finding and hiring experts (micro consulting). At the moment I don't have any particular good idea about adapting this to the gov2.0 world (other than realizing that we have a ton of really smart people who would love to share their expertise), but from a purely idea perspective Moontoast is cool. Check out the video on their front page for a nice 30 second intro.

Tuesday, March 24, 2009

Smartest guy in the room

There has been quite a bit of debate in the past few weeks about the various attributes of the wall street types that are generally believed to be responsible for the current economic crisis. Are they really smart or really dumb? Do they have any sense of shame or decency? Where is the patriotism?

I don't know a lot of them, but a few. And here is my impression of the commonalities. They went to Ivy or near ivy schools. They got their job based on a few discussions over cocktails (whether that be with a recruiter or friend/family who already works in a firm). They are willing to work long hours (I qualify that, because to them it includes drinks and dinner with clients and colleagues). Few have much if any education in finance or business (tons of philosophy, psych, and government majors). They are convinced that they are 'the smartest person in the room.'

The other thing I would say is that I think it would be healthy for the industry to be forced to diversify geographically. The NYC/western Connecticut, London City, and other big hubs create a bubble where everyone is dependent on finance. This creates a really unhealthy culture that sucks everyone in (and drives away smart people who come mid career).

Friday, March 20, 2009

Special Messages

The Obama Special Olympics line has already been beaten to death.

My personal favorite aspect was Jake Tapper responding to various outlets criticism of his twitter posts by blocking them from following him. Tapper seems like the tennis type - I wonder if he storms off the court if someone calls his shot out (seriously, what an f-ing primadonna).

If we are lucky obama will invite a few Special Olympic bowlers to the white house and get espn 2 to cover the match. I just hope Ron Stone is there to call it. Ham bone!

But I think the whole episode underlines obama's popularity beating the popularity of his policies. The pundits like Tapper will undoubtedly run their mouths today, registering indignation and calls of hypocracy. In the real world, it was another great humanizing moment for the President, who continues to defy the caricatures of liberal and conservative and insteed act like, you know, a regular person.

Thursday, March 19, 2009

It looks like Rep. Ellen Tauscher has accepted to be Under Secretary of State for Arms Control. Good for her, as from the little I know she is pretty good on those issues (though I worry whether the fact that all her experience comes from an Arms Service perspective is good or bad).

But given the President's ambitious agenda, I do worry about the wisdom of continuing to pluck real partners (as opposed to back stabbing scum like Evan Bayh) out of Congress. Rahm, Biden, Clinton (and subsequently Gillibrand), Solis, plus a lot of key staffers (plus Napolitano and Sebelius - essentially handing two governorships and potentially a Senate seat in 2010 to Republicans). I think they are all accomplished and qualified, but given that Congress is going to be the roadblock to most of his campaign promises it seems like subtraction by addition.

Tuesday, March 17, 2009

I am not homophobic, you stupid fag

Christian Brose at FP responds to Fareed Zakaria's much talked about piece by saying, "I'm all for a serious discussion of diplomacy, but unfortunately this isn't it." He then proceeds to offer his own ridiculous rantings which seem to pretty clearly demonstrate that at a minimum Zakaria's observations apply to his world view.

First off, as much as Brose likes to use them as synonims, diplomacy and negotiation aren't the same thing. Diplomacy may involve negotiation, but it also includes dialogue, information sharing, intelligence gathering, exchange, and enforcement. Diplomats and leaders can meet for the purpose of negotiating, but they may be doing another of those activities. The mistake of the Washington foreign policy establishment is ignoring the value of these other functions.

The second elephant in his throwing around of words like "coercion" and "leverage." I think he is roughly right when he notes that negotiating is the "balancing of incentives and disincentives to elicit changes," though I wouldn't be so imperialistic as to include "another party's behavior" since negotiations also changes our bahavior. But he sees it as a zero sum game of horse trading.

It is true that "Damascus's desire to dominate Lebanon is not an interest." But that isn't because they are "illigitimate". Damascus doesn't want nominal control of Beihruit so it can strut around and tell everyone it lords over the capital of a small country witha history of violence and beautiful Mediterranean views. Their interests are internal stability, a chip in their negotiations with Israel, rent, some level of control over a major potential flashpoint in the behind the scenes battle going on between Shia and Sunni, and probably a whole bag of other interests that a white guy in DC who only speaks English could never even imagine. Moreover, even if I thought one of those was "illigitimate" that wouldn't make it any less real or valuable to the Syrians.

In reality negotiating is more a combination of learning (internal and between parties) and arbitrage. The learning comes from the two sides conducting diplomacy, other forms of intelligence gathering, and getting together in a room and talking. Here people reveal their interests (which besides material interests can include things like "I don't want the US to invade my country" or "I want to be able to travel to Europe without fear of being arrested for war crimes"), but more importantly they rank those interests.

Once positive and negative interests are ranked people can trade them. If they can come up with a configuration of trades that each party perceives as providing value in achieving their interests, we have a deal. Finally, the results are codified into an agreement and we all go out an celebrate.

The neocon folly - and the one that I think Zakaria rightly points out as endemic throughout Washington - is our desire to serve as the arbiter of what interests are legitimate. Brose claims Russia's real interest is "to force the United States into a position where every decision we make about our own interests in Europe and Central Asia has to go through the Kremlin first." But given that we live in a highly globalized world, why wouldn't Russia want to have a say in our decisions? And more importantly, are our attempts to foment democratic revolutions and support anti-Russian parties in Eastern Europe any less "craven"?

Andrew Sullivan plucked out Brose's line about how terrible it is that we didn't try to "change Iran's behavior" in 2003. But while it may be a great applause line, the sentiment that undergirds it is the epitome of hubris and imperialism. What was needed was a change in our relationship. The same Amero-centric myopia that makes Pakistan, India, China, Russia, and Israel's possession of nukes acceptable and Iran's tinkering anywhere in the nuclear neighborhood illegitimate is precisely what precludes us from sitting down at a table with Iran and treating them as equals, albeit significantly more resource constrained and insecure ones.

And by the way, it is the mainstreaming of this perspective that more than anything else is responsible for the demise of Charles Freeman. It wasn't his hostility towards Jews or Tibetans that got him in trouble, it was his unique ability to really look at things through the eyes of others and offer opinions untainted patriotism or conceit.

Monday, March 2, 2009

Hope it Lasts Longer Than His Presidential Runs

Seriously, can I please take over the press office at USDA. I mean, did Vilsack fire everyone there to save a few bucks (then again, he doesn't talk to anyone who's a career person, so there is no reason to think it is different up there)?

First, there is the appalling "USDA and the stimulus" page. Highlights of USDA's "plan":

* The Act allows up to 3 percent of the funds provided to RD for administrative costs (approximately $130.8 million).
* Broadband loan budget authority and loan levels to be determined by the agency.
* Mandatory funding; reflects CBO scoring.
* Provides $90 million annually through December 31, 2010 and $22.5 million for the first quarter of FY 2011.


(I swear, those are the actual bullet points.)

Then this hilarious story about Gardengate. Vilsack has been running around telling everyone about his "People's Garden." Except it looks like no one has thought beyond the press release and photo op. Turns out the garden has no owner, budget, or plan (and let's not even start on his talk about improving USDA facilities around the country and world) - other than it being tended by "disabled folks."

Kindle

Andrew Sullivan extracts from Farhad Manjoo's review of the Kindle at Slate. I share most of his observations and frustrations regarding the Kindle - the eBook lock-in, the pathetic web browser, the lack of RSS, and the "blog" feature. But he reads the tea leaves and says:

If you're in the market for an e-book reader, you'll probably choose the one that offers the most books, and that means Kindle. (At the moment, there are about 240,000 titles available for the Kindle; the Sony Reader, its closest rival, has fewer than 100,000.) Taken together, these trends all point in one direction—Amazon will come to rule the market for e-books. And as the master of the e-book universe, Amazon will eventually call the shots on pricing, marketing, and everything else associated with the new medium.


In the short run I think Amazon will remain master of the eBook. But I have the feeling that in the long run the complete lock down of the device will hurt them once someone cracks the open format nut.

A relevant comparisson here is the evolution of the MP3 player market. Early on everyone was trying to build their own proprietary silo's. You had the microsoft and sony crowds building their own formats. Rio was the big name doing MP3's; however, they suffered from a clunky app for moving your files to the device. And they each did pretty well because there was no one else out there.

But then the iPod came out and (more importantly) iTunes. This made it easy to add to your iPod. You could rip from any CD or import MP3's. Then came the iTunes store. This let you buy music; however, you could still use all your other music. Then podcasts became cool, and apple added the podcast on iTunes but still let you bring in any other one you wanted as well.

The biggest embrace of this openess is the iPhone platform. Apple built the phone but opened it up to the world for software development. Where the big recurring money is is in being the distribution channel for other peoples efforts. This gives others a stake in pushing the iPhone, and it lets them drive innovation. And it is exactly what is missing from the Kindle and why I see its ceiling as the Zune.